A promotion worked only if it improved the result you wanted. To tell whether it brought new buyers or simply discounted orders customers would have placed anyway, compare the promotion with a fair normal period, calculate what each order contributed after its costs, and check whether the buyers returned later. Gross revenue alone cannot answer those questions.
Start by deciding what success meant before you judge the numbers. If the aim was to reach new customers, count first-time buyers. If it was to clear slow stock, measure how much stock moved and what you earned from it. If you wanted repeat business, look for later purchases. One promotion can do well on one aim and poorly on another.
Build a fair comparison
Choose a normal period close enough to be useful: for example, the same number of days just before the promotion, or the equivalent period from an earlier sales cycle if that is more representative. Note differences that could have affected sales, such as a public holiday, a new product launch, a stock shortage or a change in where you advertised. You may not be able to isolate the promotion perfectly; the aim is a sensible comparison, not false precision.
Write down the same measures for both periods:
- Number of orders and units sold.
- Number of first-time and returning buyers, using whatever customer records you already keep.
- Average selling price per unit and the discount given.
- The cost of the goods sold, plus other direct costs you paid to fulfil those orders.
- Any stockouts, delays or unusual changes in demand.
Then compare the promotion period with the baseline. Suppose a normal week brings 20 orders and the promotion brings 29. That is nine more orders during the promotion, but it does not prove the promotion created nine new customers. Some could be returning buyers who would have purchased anyway, and some might have brought a future purchase forward. Treat the difference as a useful signal to investigate, not as a precise count of customers caused by the offer.
If you sell several products, look at them separately as well as together. A bundle or discount may shift buyers towards one item while leaving other items unchanged. Sell-through and other inventory measures can help show which products moved faster or slower; interpret them in the context of your own range rather than as universal targets.[1]
Check contribution, not just sales
For each period, estimate what remained from the orders after the costs directly tied to those sales. A practical calculation is:
Contribution = sales collected − cost of goods sold − discounts − other direct order costs
Use costs you actually know. Depending on how you sell, direct costs might include packaging, payment charges or a delivery amount you chose to cover for the buyer. Keep the calculation consistent across both periods, and don’t subtract the same cost twice. This is a decision aid, not a full business profit statement: it does not account for every overhead or your own time.
For an illustrative example, imagine your usual 20 orders contribute KSh 12,000 in total. A promotion produces 29 orders but contributes KSh 13,050 after the lower prices and direct costs. That is more total contribution, but only KSh 1,050 more for the extra nine orders and the work of running the promotion. If the same discount had reduced total contribution, the extra sales would have come at a cost your business may not want to repeat.
Also compare contribution per order. A lower figure during a promotion may be an acceptable trade if you deliberately paid that cost to reach new buyers or move stock you wanted to clear. It is less persuasive if most orders came from regular customers and the promotion did little beyond reducing what they paid. The right choice depends on the purpose you set at the start.
Look for new and returning buyers
Use a simple, consistent definition of “new”: a buyer with no earlier purchase in the records you can check. If your records do not reliably connect repeat orders to the same person, say so in your notes rather than guessing. Keep customer information only in ways you are comfortable managing, and use the same approach for the baseline and promotion periods.
Next, revisit the promotion’s buyers after a reasonable interval for your kind of product. Compare how many bought again, and how much those later orders contributed. A promotion that attracts first-time buyers who return at a healthy order value may be worth refining, even if the first order had a smaller contribution. If few return and the first sale was heavily discounted, repeating the same offer may be less attractive. Do not treat a short follow-up window as a final verdict: different goods are bought at different rhythms.
Decide what to change next time
Make the decision specific. Repeat the offer if it met its goal and the contribution makes sense. Change the discount, product mix or audience if it brought useful new buyers but gave away too much on each order. If it mostly discounted regular purchases, try a smaller offer or a bundle that gives customers a reason to buy more without cutting every item’s price. If the aim was stock movement, track which products sold through and whether you would need to replenish them; inventory reporting can help distinguish faster and slower movement.[1]
Keep the next test manageable. Record the offer, dates, products, baseline, sales, estimated contribution and follow-up purchases in one sheet or notebook. Use sales history alongside planned promotions and product changes when deciding how much stock and fulfilment capacity to prepare. Forecasts are planning aids, not exact predictions; for a small operation, a straightforward estimate based on your own sales and likely bottlenecks is a useful starting point.[2]
Moveka is your best practical next move once you have chosen the offer: check delivery options and the current price against the actual parcel details and selected locations, so you can plan fulfilment around the order you want to win. Then decide whether the delivery cost belongs in your customer’s price or your contribution calculation, and check the available option for your route.
